Русская версияFor months, experts and commentators have been preparing us for the
notion that the global economy is standing right before a downturn.
They say that in the US a recession threatens, in Europe there is a
clear deceleration of growth, and in China, too -- although
partially willed by politicians -- the times of double-digit growth
rates will soon be over.
Bildunterschrift:
What the bankers of the US Federal Reserve have to say about their
latest interest rate decisions does not exactly sound comforting
either: the tense situation in the money markets, the paralyzing
property market and the raised energy costs were weighing on the
global economic condition, the Fed explained.
Furthermore, they say
the financial markets remain under clear pressure. The situation in
the US job market is also fraught, they say. With 5.7 percent, the
unemployment rate in July climbed to its highest level since March
2004. The former head of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, is
even more pessimistic. He warned in the
Financial Times
newspaper of the crisis of a century and prophesized that scores
of banks would not survive this crisis.
At the moment there is no shortage of pessimistic voices on the
economic situation in the USA. And when the economic situation in
the largest national economy weakens, it is well-known that the
rest of the world gets a cold. Skeptics do not even consider
positive signals that indicate that everything does not have to end
so badly. Yet, after initial calculations, the American economy has
grown by 1.9 percent in the second quarter of 2008. A recession is
looking different.
But this growth is just a tax present from the Bush government that
is billions in debt, say the pessimists. This consumer spending
could soon fizzle out and then the consumers in the credit and
property crisis would be hit directly.
So is the glass half full or half empty? The International Monetary
Fund has all the same raised the growth prognosis for the largest
national economy in the world from 0.5 to 1.3 percent, in light of
the unexpectedly strong consumer demand in the US. To speak of
recession in the face of such forecasts already borders on
negligence.
Relief is especially coming from the other side. The crude oil and
energy prices that have made for worldwide bursts of inflation have
been crumbling considerably for some time now. That allows the
central banks of this world once again to hope that the price
pushes of the past were a passing occurrence and that they are not
opening up into so-called second-round effects. The decision by the
US Federal Reserve should not be seen as anything other than a move
to leave the key interest rate in the USA unchanged. In a meeting
on Aug. 14, the European Central Bank will also be taking
precautions to further slow down the paralyzing growth strength
with a new increase in the key interest rate.
There is no question: every upsurge will come to a standstill.
Sometimes the pessimists have an economic boom. But to speak of a
recession in light of the many contradictory signals is
irresponsible. Whoever constantly warns of a crisis and a looming
recession unsettles consumers and businesses -- and in the end they
keep talking about it until after the crisis itself has passed. A
downturn that everybody is talking about and that everybody is
expecting is like a self-fulfilling prophecy: consumers save,
businesses postpone their investments, jobs are cut, and goods wait
on the shelves.
But it does not have to get that far. Former German economics
minister and federal chancellor, Ludwig Erhard, once said that 50
percent of economy is psychology. If that is right then sympathetic
psychologists should not tell their patient that he is sicker than
he really is.
Rolf Wenkel is a business editor at DW-RADIO (ah)
(Deutsche Welle)
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