Русская версия"A country in this geopolitical situation, with such ethnic
diversity, required and still requires great caution and
sensitivity from its politicians," Georgia's President Eduard
Shevarnadze said in the first half of the 1990s.
His successor
Mikhail Saakashvili neglected both. Even worse: he seeks conflict
with an overly powerful neighbor, resorts to military force and
desperately calls for help from abroad after Russia -- also with
tanks and soldiers -- makes his borders clear to him.
Bildunterschrift:
Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift:
Miodrag Soric
The whole world is asking why Saakashvili is picking this quarrel
now. He was probably looking to put the USA in a hostage position.
America has been delivering weapons to Georgia for years and has
hundreds of military advisors posted there. Saakashvili must have
hoped that he would somehow be able to draw the USA into this
conflict and that Moscow would ultimately shy away from pursuing
direct altercation with Washington.
If those were the calculations of the Georgian president and
firebrand, he got it fundamentally wrong and has set off the awful
bloodshed in the Caucasus region. Thousands of people have lost
their lives as a result. Tens of thousands are fleeing. At some
point Saakashvili will have to answer for that.
A message for Washington
Russia has seized the opportunity -- at least that is how they see
it in Moscow -- to show the world quite plainly what America's
support is not worth much at the moment. Unlike the hot-headed
Saakashvili, US President George W. Bush was calm and considered
enough not to risk a war with the nuclear power Russia. The White
House knows that, in the long-run, with every day that the war
continues, the prices of oil and gas are increasing. That is bad
for the American economic condition, but brings additional revenues
of billions for Russia as a raw materials exporter. Washington's
political elite is shaking with rage.
From a military point of view Georgia has lost this war. It would
be a small victory if, with the help of diplomacy, it could be
arranged for non-Russian troops to be stationed at the borders of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia after the ceasefire that Medvedev has
ordered. That would be a compromise that Russia could also get
involved in, especially in order to preserve its influence in the
Caucasus. America is party to this conflict and can therefore not
step up as a real mediator.
Now it is Europe's hour. The French president had discussions in
the Kremlin. At the end of the week Chancellor Angela Merkel will
meet the Russian president in Sochi on the Black Sea, just a few
hours' drive from the conflict zone. France and Germany are well
advised to ignore the voices of Poland and the three small Baltic
States in these discussions. They are threatening Russia and thus
totally misjudge their possibilities. They are a hindrance for a
consistent European foreign policy.
As Shevarnadze said, caution and sensitivity are needed.
(Deutsche Welle)
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